Research statement
Publications
“Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle," with David Berger and Luigi Bocola
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 138, No. 3, 2023, p. 1765-1815. [Link] [Draft] [Slides]
“Reputation, Bailouts, and Interest Rate Spreads Dynamics," with Rishabh Kirpalani
AEJ:Macro, Volume 14, no. 3, 2022, p. 411-449 [Link] [Draft][Appendix][Slides]
"Rules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives," with Rishabh Kirpalani
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 88, no. 6, 2021, p. 2833-2856 [Link] [Draft] [Slides]
“Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments,” with Rishabh Kirpalani
American Economic Review, Volume 110, No. 3, 2020, p. 860-888 [Link] [Paper] [Slides]
"Rethinking Optimal Currency Areas,” with V.V. Chari and Patrick Kehoe
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 111, 2020, p. 80-94 [Link] [Paper] [Appendix]
"Credit Market Frictions and Trade Liberalizations,” with Wyatt Brooks,
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 111, 2020, p. 32-47 [Link] [Paper]
"On the Optimality of Financial Repression,” with V.V. Chari and Patrick Kehoe,
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 128, No. 2, 2020, p. 710-739 [Link] [Paper] [Appendix]
See also "Financial Repression: Evidence and Theory,” Minneapolis Fed Economic Policy Papers [Link]
"Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis,” with Luigi Bocola
American Economic Review, Volume 109, No. 12, 2019, p. 4343-4377 [Link] [Paper] [Appendix] [Slides]
“Quantitative Sovereign Default Models and the European Debt Crisis," with Luigi Bocola and Gideon Bornstein
Journal of International Economics, 118 (2019): 20-30 [Link] [Paper] (Prepared for 2018 NBER ISOM Conference)
"Efficient Sovereign Default,”
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86. Issue 1, 2019, p. 282-312 [Link] [Paper] [Slides] [Extra Appendix]
Working Papers
"Long-Term Contracts, Commitment, and Optimal Information Disclosure," with Paolo Martellini
[Draft, Last revision: March 2024][Slides]
"Unique Implementation with Market-Based Interventions," with Rishabh Kirpalani
[Draft, Last revision: August 2023] [Slides]
"Political Economy of Sovereign Debt: A Theory of Cycles of Populism and Austerity,”
with Mikhail Golosov and Ali Shourideh
[Draft, Last revision: January 2016] [Slides]
"Capital Mobility and Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: A Rationale for Capital Controls?”
[Draft, Last revision: November 2012]
Work in Progress
"Bond Market Views of the Fed," with Luigi Bocola, Kasper Jørgensen, and Rishabh Kirpalani
"On the Optimal Delegation of Executive Discretion," with Rishabh Kirpalani and Guillaume Sublet
"On the Design of a Robust Lender of Last Resort," with Rishabh Kirpalani [Slides]
"Emerging Market Spreads and Risk Premia: Risk-free rate and (in)convenience yield,"
with Xiang Fang (HKU) and Yang Liu (HKU) [Related slides]
Book Chapters
“A Journey Down the Slippery Slope to the European Crisis: A Theorist’s Guide,”
with V.V. Chari and Patrick Kehoe, in Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present and Future,
Edited by Michael Bordo and John Taylor, Hoover Press.
[Draft, Last revision: August 2016]
Discussions
“A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility," by Marina Halac and Pierre Yared,
Conference on Fiscal Policy in an Era of High Debt, IMF Fiscal Affairs Dept, November 2023 [Slides]
“Making Sovereign Debt Safe with a Financial Stability Fund," by Yan Liu, Ramon Marimon and Adrien Wicht,
Conference on Sovereign Debt, Minneapolis Fed, November 2022 [Slides]
“Sovereign Debt, Default Risk, and the Liquidity of Government Bonds," by Gaston Chaumont,
NBER IFM Spring meeting, March 2020 [Slides]
"Optimal Trade Policy with Trade Imbalances," by Mostafa Beshkar and Ali Shourideh,
Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference on Public Policy, April 2019 [Slides] [Written Discussion]
“Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," by Javier Bianchi and Jorge Mondragon,
NBER IFM Spring meeting, March 2019 [Slides]
"Sovereign Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," by Diego Anzoategui,
7th Workshop on International Economics, Atlanta Fed, December 2018 [Slides]
“Currency Choice in Contracts," by Andres Drenik, Rishabh Kirpalani, and Diego Perez,
NBER IFM Fall meeting, October 2018 [Slides]
Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies without Rational Expectations,” by Luigi Iovino and Dmitriy Sergeyev,
NBER IFM Spring meeting, March 2018 [Slides]
“Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions,”
by Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai, and Gabriel Mihalache, NBER ISOM Conference, July 2017, Vilnius [Slides]
“A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield,”
by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek, NBER IFM Fall meeting, October 2016 [Slides]
"Liquidity Traps, Capital Flows and Currency Wars," by Sushant Acharya and Julien Bengui,
ITAM-PIER Conference , August 2016 [Slides]
“Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms,” by Andreas Muller, Kjetil Storesletten,
and Fabrizio Zilibotti, Workshop on Political Economy, EIEF, July 2016 [Slides]
"Financial Innovation for Rent Extraction," by Anton Korinek,
ASSA Meeting, January 2016 [Slides]
"Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," by João Ayres, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles,
Barcelona Summer Forum, Workshop on International Capital Flows, June 2015 [Slides]
"Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," by Diego Perez,
New Faces in International Economics Conference, May 2015 [Slides]
"International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," by Xavier Gabaix and Matteo Maggiori,
NBER Monetary Economics Meeting, March 2014 [Slides]
Publications
“Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle," with David Berger and Luigi Bocola
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 138, No. 3, 2023, p. 1765-1815. [Link] [Draft] [Slides]
“Reputation, Bailouts, and Interest Rate Spreads Dynamics," with Rishabh Kirpalani
AEJ:Macro, Volume 14, no. 3, 2022, p. 411-449 [Link] [Draft][Appendix][Slides]
"Rules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives," with Rishabh Kirpalani
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 88, no. 6, 2021, p. 2833-2856 [Link] [Draft] [Slides]
“Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments,” with Rishabh Kirpalani
American Economic Review, Volume 110, No. 3, 2020, p. 860-888 [Link] [Paper] [Slides]
"Rethinking Optimal Currency Areas,” with V.V. Chari and Patrick Kehoe
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 111, 2020, p. 80-94 [Link] [Paper] [Appendix]
"Credit Market Frictions and Trade Liberalizations,” with Wyatt Brooks,
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 111, 2020, p. 32-47 [Link] [Paper]
"On the Optimality of Financial Repression,” with V.V. Chari and Patrick Kehoe,
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 128, No. 2, 2020, p. 710-739 [Link] [Paper] [Appendix]
See also "Financial Repression: Evidence and Theory,” Minneapolis Fed Economic Policy Papers [Link]
"Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis,” with Luigi Bocola
American Economic Review, Volume 109, No. 12, 2019, p. 4343-4377 [Link] [Paper] [Appendix] [Slides]
“Quantitative Sovereign Default Models and the European Debt Crisis," with Luigi Bocola and Gideon Bornstein
Journal of International Economics, 118 (2019): 20-30 [Link] [Paper] (Prepared for 2018 NBER ISOM Conference)
"Efficient Sovereign Default,”
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86. Issue 1, 2019, p. 282-312 [Link] [Paper] [Slides] [Extra Appendix]
Working Papers
"Long-Term Contracts, Commitment, and Optimal Information Disclosure," with Paolo Martellini
[Draft, Last revision: March 2024][Slides]
"Unique Implementation with Market-Based Interventions," with Rishabh Kirpalani
[Draft, Last revision: August 2023] [Slides]
"Political Economy of Sovereign Debt: A Theory of Cycles of Populism and Austerity,”
with Mikhail Golosov and Ali Shourideh
[Draft, Last revision: January 2016] [Slides]
"Capital Mobility and Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: A Rationale for Capital Controls?”
[Draft, Last revision: November 2012]
Work in Progress
"Bond Market Views of the Fed," with Luigi Bocola, Kasper Jørgensen, and Rishabh Kirpalani
"On the Optimal Delegation of Executive Discretion," with Rishabh Kirpalani and Guillaume Sublet
"On the Design of a Robust Lender of Last Resort," with Rishabh Kirpalani [Slides]
"Emerging Market Spreads and Risk Premia: Risk-free rate and (in)convenience yield,"
with Xiang Fang (HKU) and Yang Liu (HKU) [Related slides]
Book Chapters
“A Journey Down the Slippery Slope to the European Crisis: A Theorist’s Guide,”
with V.V. Chari and Patrick Kehoe, in Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present and Future,
Edited by Michael Bordo and John Taylor, Hoover Press.
[Draft, Last revision: August 2016]
Discussions
“A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility," by Marina Halac and Pierre Yared,
Conference on Fiscal Policy in an Era of High Debt, IMF Fiscal Affairs Dept, November 2023 [Slides]
“Making Sovereign Debt Safe with a Financial Stability Fund," by Yan Liu, Ramon Marimon and Adrien Wicht,
Conference on Sovereign Debt, Minneapolis Fed, November 2022 [Slides]
“Sovereign Debt, Default Risk, and the Liquidity of Government Bonds," by Gaston Chaumont,
NBER IFM Spring meeting, March 2020 [Slides]
"Optimal Trade Policy with Trade Imbalances," by Mostafa Beshkar and Ali Shourideh,
Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference on Public Policy, April 2019 [Slides] [Written Discussion]
“Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," by Javier Bianchi and Jorge Mondragon,
NBER IFM Spring meeting, March 2019 [Slides]
"Sovereign Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," by Diego Anzoategui,
7th Workshop on International Economics, Atlanta Fed, December 2018 [Slides]
“Currency Choice in Contracts," by Andres Drenik, Rishabh Kirpalani, and Diego Perez,
NBER IFM Fall meeting, October 2018 [Slides]
Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies without Rational Expectations,” by Luigi Iovino and Dmitriy Sergeyev,
NBER IFM Spring meeting, March 2018 [Slides]
“Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions,”
by Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai, and Gabriel Mihalache, NBER ISOM Conference, July 2017, Vilnius [Slides]
“A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield,”
by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek, NBER IFM Fall meeting, October 2016 [Slides]
"Liquidity Traps, Capital Flows and Currency Wars," by Sushant Acharya and Julien Bengui,
ITAM-PIER Conference , August 2016 [Slides]
“Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms,” by Andreas Muller, Kjetil Storesletten,
and Fabrizio Zilibotti, Workshop on Political Economy, EIEF, July 2016 [Slides]
"Financial Innovation for Rent Extraction," by Anton Korinek,
ASSA Meeting, January 2016 [Slides]
"Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," by João Ayres, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles,
Barcelona Summer Forum, Workshop on International Capital Flows, June 2015 [Slides]
"Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," by Diego Perez,
New Faces in International Economics Conference, May 2015 [Slides]
"International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," by Xavier Gabaix and Matteo Maggiori,
NBER Monetary Economics Meeting, March 2014 [Slides]